Ethiopia’s Rebels Are Collapsing. That Doesn’t Mean The War Is Over

Ethiopia's rebel alliance is fracturing just weeks after forming. Government forces have retaken Mekelle and pushed militants from multiple regions, yet the war is far from over. Internal divisions plague the coalition, while potential Eritrean involvement and drone supplies from Sudan threaten to escalate this into a broader regional conflict. Sources https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/23/africa/tigray-ethiopia-fighting-erupts-intl https://igad.int/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Download-the-signed-agreement-here.pdf https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/ethiopia-fresh-clashes-renew-fears-return-conflict https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/1/fighting-breaks-out-in-western-tigray-as-ethiopia-and-tplf-trade-blame https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ethiopia-tigray-tplf-m23-drc-rwanda-uganda https://x.com/AmharaWarUpdate/status/2104720785151578116 https://x.com/AmharaWarUpdate/status/2104403434812182971 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/3/rebels-pulling-back-as-addis-ababas-forces-advance-reports-say https://www.theafricareport.com/432282/ethiopian-forces-seize-mekelle-as-regional-rivals-gather-in-egypt/ https://apnews.com/article/ethiopia-tigray-war-tplf-792f66094d4cc5171ec5478e8a994931 https://x.com/martinplaut/status/2106483907772191035 https://fidelpost.com/tplf-forces-retreat-as-joint-ethiopian-security-forces-take-control-of-mekelle/ https://kulu-media.com/tpf-claims-capture-of-mekelle-airport-in-tigray/ https://x.com/DanielsonKassa1/status/2106485222489604296 https://x.com/getachew_temare/status/2106876751234170914 https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20261002-ethiopia-tigray-rebels-pushed-back-as-regional-tensions-spike https://x.com/AmharaWarUpdate/status/2104768146435453017 https://x.com/AmharaWarUpdate/status/2104737931072012540 https://acleddata.com/expert-comment/ethiopia-conflict-expert-insights https://martinplaut.com/2026/09/28/ethiopia-war-update-from-acled-28-september-2026/ https://www.hiiraan.com/politics4/2026/Sep/206344/onlf_denies_joining_ethiopian_opposition_alliance_against_abiy_ahmed_government.aspx https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/2/how-the-fighting-in-ethiopia-spread-beyond-tigray-in-maps-and-charts https://x.com/tesfanews/status/2106409219008176573 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/23/can-ethiopias-seven-group-rebel-alliance-challenge-abiy-ahmed https://addisstandard.com/news-au-monitoring-team-confirm-handing-over-of-heavy-weapons-by-tigrayan-forces-neither-foreign-nor-non-endf-forces-reported-withdrawing-from-tigray/ https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2026C29/ https://aviationweek.com/defense/aircraft-propulsion/ethiopian-air-force-acquires-two-russian-sukhoi-su-30-fighters https://www.military.africa/2026/04/ethiopia-receives-additional-calidus-mcav-20-armoured-vehicles-from-uae/ https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20260908-ethiopia-boosts-drone-production-to-fight-rebels https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/3331184/ethiopia-controls-tigray-capital-as-regional-rivals-meet-in-egypt