4% Rule vs 6% Withdrawal: Same Returns, One Goes Broke

4% Rule vs 6% Withdrawal | Safe Withdrawal Rate 2026 — same returns, flipped order: $1.6M left or broke in year 14? Can you safely withdraw 6% a year in retirement? I put the famous 4% rule head to head with a 6% withdrawal using a simple, transparent hypothetical test: the same market returns, the same average, just a different order. Then we look at the latest 2026 research from Morningstar and William Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, and test one flexible spending strategy that kept a 6% retiree alive in the worst case. Key numbers covered: Morningstar's 2026 safe withdrawal rate (3.9%), Bengen's updated worst-case rate (4.7%), his typical range (5.25%–5.5%), and Morningstar's flexible-spending ceiling (5.7%). TIMESTAMPS 0:00 Same returns, two very different outcomes 0:34 Why the 4% rule is being debated in 2026 1:21 Where the 4% rule came from (Bill Bengen, 1994) 2:32 How the 4% rule works ($1M example) 3:25 The test: 4% vs 6% with identical returns 4:32 Market A: good years first, 6% looks brilliant 5:42 Market B: bad years first, broke in year 14 7:05 Why it happens: sequence of returns risk 9:00 The 1968 retiree and the worst case in history 10:03 What research says about a 6% withdrawal rate 11:54 Bengen's 2025 update: 4.7% and 5.25%–5.5% 13:16 Morningstar's 2026 safe withdrawal rate 14:40 Stock valuations (CAPE) and why experts disagree 16:26 Guardrails: how a 6% retiree survives 18:15 Cash buffer and guaranteed income 19:07 The final answer + cheat sheet SOURCES Bill Bengen, "A Richer Retirement" (Wiley, 2025) Advisor Perspectives: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2025/08/29/bill-bengen-boosts-the-4-rule-to-4-7 Morningstar, safe withdrawal rate research for 2026 retirees Michael Kitces, sequence of returns research DISCLAIMER This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. The two-retiree scenarios are hypothetical illustrations, not predictions or real historical results. Talk to a qualified professional about your own situation. If this changed how you see retirement math, subscribe for the next video. #4PercentRule #RetirementPlanning #SafeWithdrawalRate #usa