Trump’s Russia Diesel Deal AS Canada Launches $14B Oil Project

Diesel in the United States is hovering around $6 a gallon. This week, the president's answer wasn't to turn to America's neighbor to the north, it was to turn to Moscow. At the same time, a very different energy story was unfolding off the coast of Newfoundland, where Shell just agreed to take a 30% stake in a C$14 billion offshore oil project that won't produce a drop of oil until 2031. Two energy decisions, made in the same week, with completely different time horizons. Mr. Owe breaks down why Canada became the obvious comparison to the Russia diesel deal, what the tariff dispute has to do with it, and what the Bay du Nord project does and doesn't tell us. This is a follow-up to our last video on the Russia-US diesel deal, worth watching first if you missed it: [link to that video] IN THIS VIDEO - A quick recap of the Russia diesel deal and Treasury's General License 135 - Why Canada, not Russia, would seem like the obvious fuel supplier, and the math behind it - How the US-Canada tariff dispute may be shaping energy decisions - What Russia can actually deliver, given its own damaged refineries - The Shell-Equinor Bay du Nord deal: a 30% stake in a project that won't produce oil until 2031 - Why short-term political moves and long-term energy investments are solving two very different problems - What to watch in the coming weeks on both stories QUICK ANSWERS Why didn't the US turn to Canada instead of Russia for diesel? Canada already supplies the US with large volumes of energy by pipeline and rail. Part of the answer appears to be the ongoing US-Canada tariff dispute, though the administration treats trade and energy sanctions as separate policy tools. What is the Bay du Nord project? An offshore oil development about 500 km off Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, where Shell has agreed to acquire a 30% non-operated stake from Equinor (which retains 70% and operates the project). It's valued at roughly C$14 billion, with first oil targeted for 2031. Does the Bay du Nord deal affect diesel prices now? No. It's crude oil, not diesel, and won't produce anything until 2031 at the earliest. It reflects a long-term bet on Canadian energy, unrelated to this winter's fuel prices. Could Canada realistically replace the Russian diesel volume? Not instantly. Canadian refineries already run close to capacity, so while geography favors Canada, ramping up supply isn't immediate either. QUESTION FOR YOU Should energy decisions be driven by speed or by strategy? And which country are you watching from? Tell me in the comments. SOURCES - Reuters, "Shell to take 30% stake in Equinor's Bay du Nord oil project in Canada," Oct. 9, 2026 - World Oil, "Shell to acquire 30% stake in Equinor's Bay du Nord offshore oil project," Oct. 9, 2026 - CTV News / The Canadian Press, Bay du Nord stake coverage, Oct. 9, 2026 - The Department of the Treasury's (OFAC) General License 135 - ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33 - www.reuters.com/world/us/bipartisan-majority-americans-blame-trump-policies-rising-costs-reutersipsos-2026-10-09/ - See our previous video for full sourcing on the Russia diesel deal and Treasury's General License 135 Note: this covers two developing stories. Figures and deal terms may change; check current reporting before drawing conclusions. This video is educational commentary on a developing news story, not financial, investment, or political advice. SUBSCRIBE Mr. Owe explains money, debt, and the global economy with simple stickman animation. New videos every day/or two: https://www.youtube.com/@MrOweExplains Educational content only. Not financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. #EnergyMarkets #Canada #GeopoliticsExplained