The Toronto Prediction That Came True

In 2010, University of Toronto professor David Hulchanski published a study that would prove to be one of the most precise predictions ever made about this city. Using 35 years of census data, he mapped how Toronto was fracturing into three distinct cities: a high-income corridor expanding along Yonge Street, a low-income periphery growing across the inner suburbs, and a middle-income tier that was rapidly disappearing. His projection: by 2025, Toronto's middle class neighbourhoods would essentially cease to exist. We are now in 2025. This is the story of whether he was right, and how it happened. This documentary traces the decisions that made Hulchanski's prediction come true: the federal government's withdrawal from social housing in 1993, the Harris government's 21.6% welfare cuts and downloading of housing costs onto municipalities in 1995, the forced amalgamation of Toronto in 1998, and the rise of real estate investment trusts that transformed housing from shelter into financial asset. Each decision compounded the last. Each one pushed Toronto further toward the divided city Hulchanski had mapped. The data he couldn't have fully anticipated in 2010 has since filled in the picture: a 12-year gap in life expectancy between Toronto's richest and poorest neighbourhoods. A child poverty rate of 25.3% in a city that regularly ranks among the world's most liveable. A rental market where the average bachelor apartment costs more than a welfare recipient receives in a month. Toronto's middle didn't disappear on its own. It was a consequence of choices; specific, dateable, nameable choices made by people in positions of power. This video names them. Credits: CGI Snake by Chris Zabriskie is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Source: http://chriszabriskie.com/divider/ Artist: http://chriszabriskie.com/ Impending Boom by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Source: http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1100198 Artist: http://incompetech.com/